When I saw the odds for this game I was quite suprised. Betfair is paying 1.63 for tonga to take the win.
Tonga is quite a good rugby nation where as Japan have been constantly humiliated since the start of the tournament. Both teams are in a very tough group and sit on the bottom of the pool however when you match the stats Tonga is by far the better team.
In comparison VS New Zealand:
Tonga: Lost by 31, scored 10, conceded 41 points, conceded 6 tries.
Japan: Lost by 76, scored 7, conceded 83 points, conceded 13 tries.
I think Tonga's defense is way to good for the Japanese team, and to put it simply, Japan are crap.
Best bet: Tonga
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